DNC Tax Day Poll

The DNC’s 2019 Tax Day poll asked voters in 15 battleground states about Trump’s tax law. Did they feel it benefited people like them? What were the effects on their personal finances? And how has the law affected how they’ll vote in 2020?

The results weren’t good for Trump and Republicans. Our poll of battleground states showed:

Voters in battleground states say Trump’s tax law benefited large corporations and the wealthy, but not “people like me” — and they’re not happy about it. 62% said either large corporations or the wealthy had benefited the most from Trump’s tax law. Only 12% said the tax law had provided a lot of benefit to people like them. And 62% said they were bothered “some” or “a great deal” that corporations used their tax savings to benefit CEOs and wealthy shareholders, not their workers.

Voters in battleground states are vastly more motivated by opposition to Trump’s tax law than support for it. That’s bad news for Trump and the GOP. A whopping 79% of voters who disapproved of Trump’s tax law said it made them much less likely to vote for Trump in 2020. Just 57% of voters who approved of the law said it made them much more likely to vote for Trump next year.

Many voters in battleground states reported smaller tax refunds this year, and as many voters reported paying more in taxes this year as said they paid less — a far cry from Trump’s promise of massive, widespread savings. 26% of voters reported getting a smaller tax refund this year than last, while just 17% said their refund was bigger. 26% of voters reported paying more in taxes this year, while 27% said they paid less.

Two-thirds of voters in battleground states said Trump’s tax law hadn’t helped them save or spend more money. Just 33% said they were able to save more money over the past year because of the tax law, and only 34% said the law had enabled them to spend more.

A majority of voters in battleground states believe Trump and his family benefited a lot from his tax law — and they believe the public has a right to know how much. So much for the Republican argument that the public doesn’t care about Trump’s taxes. 51% of voters believed Trump and his family benefited “a great deal” from the tax law, and another 14% said the Trumps benefited “some.” 56% say Americans deserve to know how much Trump benefited from his signature law.

The DNC’s 2019 Tax Day poll was conducted online by Change Research from April 12-13, 2019. Using its Bias Correct Engine to attain a sample reflective of registered voters, Change Research polled 1,293 registered voters in 15 states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin). Post-stratification weights were made on age, gender, race and ethnicity, and 2016 vote to reflect the distribution within these swing states. Each state makes up a similar percentage as it does in the Electoral College.

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